2007 Predictions

We look into our magic balls (no, not that kind) to predict what 2007 will bring

Tags: Categories: DS Features, Features, GBA Features, Game Cube Features, PC Features, PS2 Features, PS3 Features, PSP Features, Tech Features, Wii Features, Xbox 360 Features, Xbox Features

Posted by Jake McNeill on Jan 22nd, 2007

With every new year brings new surprises, and shocking twists and turns no one can possibly hope to predict… but we’re going to pretend to anyways!

Okay, so we’re new to this, and maybe we’ll be totally off. We’ve been wrong before, and a few of these predictions actually go against the grain of public perception. However, we figure there’s no better test for our psychic powers (unless we get a surprise attack from Magneto), so here goes nuthin’…

What follows is a list of predictions for what 2007 will bring:


The PlayStation 3 Fights Back

In 2006, the launch of the PlayStation 3 didn’t exactly go smoothly, and with a somewhat unimpressive launch lineup and high-priced, hard-to-find hardware, Sony did themselves considerable damage in the public mindset. And while there was naturally much excitement over the launch of a new console, for many this excitement felt a bit empty as the machine has yet to prove itself.

In 2007, the excitement of launch will initially make way for a quiet period where the hype cools down and reality sets in, and an initial dead period sees the release of few original games (and a lot of the multiplatform stragglers that didn’t make PS3’s launch). The PlayStation 2 experienced a similar dead period, but was buoyed by the PS2’s use as a DVD player. However, the PlayStation 3 won’t have the same assistance in this regard, as the continuing struggle between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD (and the spread of players that will read both) will ensure that movie studios remain divided between the two formats, effectively splitting the market and making consumers uneasy about placing their faith in either.

However, in spite of this, the PS3 will slowly manage to build itself back up to a more respectable status with a slow but steady stream of solid games (but not AAA – at least until late in the year). In addition, once developers get more comfortable with the PS3, more and more titles will be cross-developed between the Xbox 360 and PS3, without the delay that such cross-platform titles have initially endured.

It is unlikely that in 2007 Sony will manage to reclaim their #1 spot in the industry (in terms of userbase size) held so long by the PlayStation 1 and 2 – the PS3 is just too expensive to sell in great quantity, and the Wii launch was seen by the public as a massive success in every market, taking Sony’s advantage in mindshare which will be extremely difficult to regain. Furthermore, continued pressure from the Xbox 360 in America and Europe will make things even more difficult for Sony, essentially fighting a war on two fronts. However, by the end of the year, no one will question their staying power in the market anymore.

For games, I’m thinking Assassin’s Creed and Devil May Cry 4 in late ’07, but other big games like Resident Evil 5, Gran Turismo 5, MGS4 and Final Fantasy XIII won’t make it until 2008 at earliest. Oh, and I’m gonna’ go out on a limb and say we’ll never hear about Afrika ever again.

In any case, neither Sony nor the PS3 is going to be going away any time soon, and 2007 will make that very clear.


The Wii floats on its hype

While the PS3 struggles to regain its position, the Wii will initially enjoy its position as media darling, even despite an extreme lack of worthwhile software. While the PS3’s first year after launch looks to mimic the PS2, the Wii’s first year after launch looks a lot like the DS’s, and that means there’s very little to look forward to in the first half of 2007.

Aside from Wario Ware and Wii Play, titles we’ll see over the next six months will be decent but unspectacular, and very few and far between. As the middle of the year approaches, people will start to wonder whether the Wii is all it’s cracked up to be, and it is around that time the Wii will start to prove itself, as Nintendo begins releasing some of its more major titles like Mario and Metroid and third parties start to get a bit more comfortable with the system, with a downpour of third-party support hitting the Wii in the fourth quarter after a long drought, especially in Q1-Q2.

Unlike the system’s launch, by the second half of 2007, developers will have gotten more adept at using the system’s unique motion-sensing functions, making for some original and interesting games that are properly executed and actually really good.

Oh, and I’m gonna’ guess that Smash Bros. hits Japan late in 2007, but we won’t see it until 2008.


The Xbox 360 has ups and downs

While the first half of the year is hitting everyone hard, Microsoft’s troubles are a bit unique. Early 2007 sees the Xbox Live Arcade struggling as Microsoft preps it for a major change to keep it competitive with Sony and Nintendo’s new downloadable content. In addition, the slow rhythm of releases that the Xbox 360 has thrived on until now will begin to mean less and less over time, as many of these games will find their way onto the PS3 as well.

However, things will start to be put into motion around the release of Windows Vista and Microsoft’s X07 event. Xbox Live will get some new multimedia and community features, as well as access to a wealth of completely new Xbox Live Arcade games. Microsoft will have a few surprises for 360 owners in regards to Vista (little of which will really matter), and will endeavor to make the two closer to one singular platform.

What’s more, Microsoft, realizing how increasingly important exclusive content is, will secure exclusive rights to some major titles, and will purchase another developer or two as well (most likely a US PC developer, but possibly a smaller Japanese console developer).

As for games, Bioshock, Halo 3, Forza 2, PGR4 and probably Banjo-Kazooie will all be released this year without delays, but Halo Wars will probably slip to 2008. Also, expect one or two of Microsoft’s classic franchises to make a comeback (Crimson Skies 2 seems a good bet). In addition, expect Rare to revisit another of their classic franchises as well (I’m thinkin’ Killer Instinct, but it might be Battletoads and I wish I wish I wish we’d see a Blast Corps sequel).


DS Continues to Dominate – Was There Any Doubt?

The DS was easily the most successful platform last year, often outselling all other platforms combined. Japanese developers know this (Square Enix’s recent Dragon Quest bombshell is proof), and US developers will catch on soon enough too. That means another great year for the DS, plain and simple.

So that just leaves game predictions. Let’s see… the Zelda game will make it in Spring, naturally, and the new Pokemon game a few months later, perhaps even as late as mid-to-late Q3. We’ll finally get the Opera browser on the DS (which won’t be quite as good as we want) and Nintendo will release additional non-game software that will make the DS function similarly to a PDA. As for new game announcements, I think F-Zero is due for a DS installment, and I’m thinking that, after the ho-hum reception to their latest Kirby game, the folks at HAL may return to their winning Canvas Curse formula (conversely, they may go way out into left field and do something completely different).

Let’s see… other Nintendo franchises due for the DS treatment… Fire Emblem, a new brain training game or two, possibly Nintencats or maybe just Nintendogs 2 (although I think that’s more likely to hit next year). Finally, if Super Smash Bros. Brawl on the Wii slips to 2008, I’d expect a SSB game on the DS late this year (if SSBB does make it out this year, I’d expect a DS SSB game sometime in 2008).


The PSP – Not Dead Yet

While many are predicting doom and gloom for the PSP, I think that 2007 may very well be the year of the handhelds, with many developers balking at the costs of next-gen development and turning to the far less-risky handheld games. And while the DS still reigns supreme in that market, the PSP has endured its early trials and made a place for itself in the market, and all they need to do is capitalize on the opportunity.

However, if Sony wants the PSP market to expand and not just stay where it is, they need to lower the price of the damn thing, and not just pack-in another crappy UMD movie (honestly, Sony – Nintendo released the DS Lite and you counter with a Lords of Dogtown UMD?). I’m thinking somewhere around $180 but $150 would be much better (and if it doesn’t drop to at least $200 by mid-year, expect a sales decline). And as long as we’re at it, let’s just say it now – in 2007, UMDs will either fall to ridiculously low $5-10 prices or die out completely.

Game predictions? Well, we already know about Silent Hill Zero, Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core, Final Fantasy Tactics and a few others. As for other stuff, I’m thinking Devil May Cry and Resident Evil from Capcom, Castlevania from Konami (possibly in 3D) and we may even finally, finally see Gran Turismo Mobile from Sony. I also suspect that now that Square Enix has released Final Fantasy I-VI on Nintendo handhelds, they’ll begin to release Final Fantasy VII, VIII and IX on the PSP (although perhaps not this year – I doubt Square Enix will want to release a PSP version of Final Fantasy VII and Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core too close to each other). If they do this, don’t expect anything too lavish – minor graphical upgrades and a few extra features.

The New E3 – “Mayyybe this was a mistake…”

The status E3 had garnered amongst gamers had become legendary back before the ESA decided to bind and gag it. People described it with terms like “ultimate”, “momentous” and “mecca”. All that flash and pizzazz was expensive, but now that it’s gone, we’ll get a look at what its more intangible benefits were.

First of all, press conferences will undoubtedly be smaller and more subdued to accommodate fewer people, and you won’t have rooms of Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft fans cheering wildly at the big announcements. Rather, things will be toned down to a mere murmur. Basically, these press events will likely be closer in mood and atmosphere to, say, a Hewlett-Packard or Toshiba press release. Here are our announcements, here is our lineup, here is what we expect in the coming year, good day, thank you for coming.

The increase in news coverage that accompanies E3 will generally be more mechanical, with everything pre-packaged for the few attendees that come. The media won’t be covering anything in a showroom environment, which means all of the information they hope to glean will have to come from meetings. And, as meetings often have attendees led by leash as game company representatives opt to demonstrate their products exactly as they see fit, it means that everyone will be getting more or less the same information. Here are our press materials, here is our pamphlet, let me show you the game running, let me explain the premise, good day, thank you for coming.

Does this sound a bit… unenthusiastic? What happens when a ”BIG ANNOUNCEMENT” becomes merely a “big announcement” in the eyes of the media? Sure, you’ll get the folks at IGN and Gamestop telling you how this game looks “off da hook!” and that game looks “simply incredible!”, but most of the media that attends these things are the folks at CNN, NBC, CBS, the LA Times, the Wall Street Journal, TIME Magazine, and other forms of news media that don’t cover videogames exclusively. How will they know that Metal Gear Solid looks awesome or that Mario is the most fun game at the show? Well, because Sony and Nintendo tell them, of course.

Ultimately, the subdued presentation will make for subdued coverage overcast by subdued enthusiasm. Games that would have otherwise been a big deal will just become “that game that company X is pushing”. Plus, the absence of any other show to really take over for E3 (unless Gamepro’s new event takes off) will make for a userbase that is overall less interested in the products, which may combine with the high cost of next-gen consoles to make this year see the worst drop in sales for videogames since the Atari crash. Way to go, ESA!


Someone in the Videogame Industry Sues Jack Thompson (and Wins)

Jack Thompson, the Florida lawyer recently seen making a big fuss about the game Bully, and later getting in trouble with the Florida Bar, has recently extended what appears to be an olive branch to the industry, in the form of some sort of vague agreement that if the ESA and ESRB agree to blacklist retailers that don’t ban kids from buying M-rated games, he might not sue them again… or something. Considering that said olive branch was worded very much like a threat, I think it’s fair to suggest that perhaps Thompson didn’t exactly have peace on his mind.

Considering that the ESRB has recently found a new ally in past critics Hillary Clinton and (insert), I’m going to bet that both the ESA and ESRB will just ignore Thompson outright. Not one to back down, Thompson will take this rejection harshly, encouraging reactionist lawmakers in multiple (red) states to make unconstitutional laws that will ultimately just waste those respective states’ tax dollars as the ESA brings them to court, where they will be summarily rejected.

However, never one to back down or remain quiet, Thompson will continue his tirade, picking a new target for his ire (almost certainly a title published by Take Two/Rockstar). However, he’ll go overboard with his attacks this time, and he’ll be brought to court for defamation, slander, or libel. Despite Thompson threatening retaliation to everyone from the game company to the judge overseeing the case, the trial will be short and simple, and Thompson will be found guilty of the charges, slapped with a fee, and if the judge or the game company’s lawyers are feeling particularly catty, he might get a (insert) too.

Thompson will huff and puff and promise retribution, but he’ll be all bark and no bite. His next tirade will be even more ridiculous, and fewer and fewer will take him seriously.


Ridiculous pricing will completely ruin at least one online-distribution title

If you thought that Lumines Live and Oblivion’s Horse Armor were shamelessly overpriced, just wait until things get worse… and they will. Until gamers speak out in a clear (and angry) voice, and either Microsoft or Sony responds by placing some pricing standards on online content, game companies will continue to take further and further advantage of gamers.

The result is that gamers will keep taking it, doling out money for what should have been free, spending a dollar here or a fiver there for content that should have cost only a fraction of what they’re being charged… it’ll keep getting worse and worse… until a game company asks for too much.

As a result, there will be a backlash. A game that should have sold well will bomb, the game company responsible will be bombarded by hate mail and assaulted on all but the most dedicated messageboards, and it will create a scar that will take a long time to heal. If the game company in question is a large one, it will initially respond by defending the pricing (with arguments that will be seen as weak and flimsy), and only after the public backlash goes into full swing will they make any attempt at redemption. If it’s a smaller company, expect this turn of events to be greatly accelerated (as it was with Oblivion’s Horse Armor).

Afterwards, if nothing else, this backlash will have established a line that game companies won’t cross, although if no standards are set for the market, we can expect to see future titles coming close.


Mini-predictions

Likely games to make the Top-10 Best-selling games of the year: the latest Madden (of course), World of Warcraft: Burning Crusade, Assassin’s Creed, Wario Ware: Smooth Moves, Super Mario Galaxy, Halo 3, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories, a few DS games (Nintendo, Konami, Capcom or Square Enix), and a few multiplatform games (EA, Ubisoft or Activision)

The GBA will gradually die out over the course of the year, but the PS2 will still be hangin’ on for 2008 (but just barely)

Either Sony will allow PSP owners to buy and download PSOne games directly, without the use of a PS3, or they will allow you to play downloaded PSOne games on your PS3.

At least one well-known game website will close or be bought out in 2007.

Either Xbox Live Gold will be reduced in price, or will receive some added functionality not present on the PS3.

The Xbox 360 will either get a bigger hard drive, or will offer a service to store gamers’ game saves and other content online.

After developers begin to forget the Sixaxis’s motion-sensing capabilities and fans start to clamor for it (possibly after Microsoft makes a big deal about it), Sony will finally give in and patch things up with Immersion, and either update the PS3 firmware to support the DualShock 2’s rumble capabilities, or (more likely) they’ll design a new DualShock 3.

Someone will get sent to the hospital for injuries allegedly caused by the Wii. They’ll sue Nintendo, and either the case will be thrown out of court or Nintendo will settle to avoid bad publicity.

Just about every game system will have a price drop except the Wii.

Half of the predictions made today will turn out to be laughably wrong, and the other half will be shockingly accurate.

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