Predictions for 2008
We look again into our crystal balls (they’re sooo pretty) to predict the future
Tags: ..other Categories: DS Features, Features, PC Features, PS2 Features, PS3 Features, PSP Features, Wii Features, Xbox 360 Features
Posted by Jake McNeill on Jan 22nd, 2008
Now that we’ve put all the 2007 predictions behind us, it’s time to look ahead to a new year. What will 2008 bring? What big changes will mold the industry over the next year? Will Duke Nukem Forever actually see release? I’ll attempt to lift the veil of the unknown to find out. With any luck, all these brain training games have improved my much-touted psychic abilities, so this time will be even more accurate than the last.
Heeeeeeeeeeere we go…
PS3 Starts to Close the Gap
Okay, so this is kinda’ cheating since this article is being written after CES, but obviously, Warner Bros. jump to Blu-Ray exclusivity has severely tipped the playing field in Blu-Ray’s favor, which spells good news for the PS3. Those who didn’t previously buy into a high-def format as an early-adopter will start pushing up PS3 sales, as the system still makes for an inexpensive and multifunctional player for what has now become, in all likelihood, the winning format in the format wars.
However, that’s not all. After the long wait in 2007, 2008 will finally see the release of many of the big Japanese PS3-exclusive titles that sold many on the system. And while some, like Devil May Cry 4, are no longer exclusive, there will still be plenty of great, high-profile stuff you can only get on the PS3.
What’s more, this year will mark the first year that PSN’s PlayStation Store finally has a presence that can compete with the likes of XBLA, with highly-anticipated releases like LittleBigPlanet and Home. What’s more, the release of the Dual Shock 3 will rectify one of the platform’s biggest long-standing issues and help to push the idea that the console is out of its embarrassing Beta stage.
The result will be seen in worldwide sales that push the PS3 closer to, if not past, the Xbox 360 in all areas, although the price will still be a barrier for some. Of course, the PS3 won’t quite reach the sales of Wii consoles, but nevertheless, the gap between the two will be seriously shortened.
The Xbox 360 Evolves
My crystal ball is clouded when it comes to the Xbox 360’s future. However, this much is clear – with increased competition from the PS3, the Xbox 360 will lose much of its advantage unless some huge change or evolution takes place.
I see one of three possibilities. In one, no such change takes place, and Microsoft keeps the system going the way it has been, business as usual. If this happens, then the Xbox 360 will start to lose a lot of market share to Sony, who will (as mentioned above) undoubtedly be shaking off their post-launch slump.
In the second scenario, Microsoft fights back with an onslaught of huge exclusives to counter Sony’s growing list. If this happens, both platforms do well, and probably even make some headway catching up to the Wii, but the Xbox 360 still loses its huge lead over the PS3.
The third scenario involves not only a steady stream of solid exclusives, but also some major innovations that change the landscape a bit. It is in this scenario, and only this scenario, that the Xbox 360 will retain its lead over the PS3, and even then it may not do so.
Wii-eakening…
This year will be the first that Nintendo’s consumer base will actually question the Wii’s value as a platform. While Super Smash Bros. Brawl will sell extremely well (and possibly even break some sales records), the rest of the year will be kinda’ weak.
As far as games go, it looks like Mario Kart will be a solid Wii title, but other than that, the games will either be niche or just not too terribly good. In addition to obvious releases like Wii Fit and a brain training game or two, I’m thinking we’ll be seeing a Wii entry in the Animal Crossing series (possibly with some interesting network features), the new Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles game, a Pokemon spin-off title, a new Donkey Konga, maybe a new Pikmin game, and one or two other titles.
As for third-party stuff, I’m betting that No More Heroes is ultimately an interesting game that’s way too oddball for mainstream, Dragon Quest: Swords is fun but shallow, Samba De Amigo is great but too niche to be a huge-seller, the House of the Dead collection not only looks outdated but has broken controls… basically, third-party games aren’t going to be a big draw for the Wii in ‘08.
In the end, the system will continue to sell well throughout the year, but its lead over both other platforms will start to taper off as the other game systems get more good games and lower in price.
PSPectacular? DSensational?
The handhelds are also a tough read, but I’m going to say that this is the first year that the PSP will start to look like it’s competing with the DS on the same level, at least in terms of sales. The sales will still skew in favor of the DS, but this time the race will be much closer, thanks to some big releases like the upcoming Final Fantasy VII and God of War spin-offs.
However, looking over release lists, it looks like neither platform will have a truly exceptional selection of games at least until the second half of the year. Keep in mind, I’m not saying that there won’t be good, or even great games, but rather that there won’t be a lot of them.
The second half of the year seems up in the air, but I’m going to venture that both Sony and Nintendo work in additional cross-compatibility features between their handhelds and consoles, although I don’t see much more than demo downloads happening for the DS.
MMO Mess
2008 looks to have a lot of new releases in the MMO world, and if history has taught us anything, it’s that generally only a few MMOs can survive in the market. As such, expect to see a lot of these MMOs fall flat fairly quickly. I’m guessing that the most likely survivors are The Agency, the upcoming Marvel MMO, and naturally World of Warcraft, although NC Soft’s “no monthly fee” games have some potential as well. Oh, and on that note, NC Soft recently bought the City of Heroes license from the developer and announced they’re working on console games – expect to hear more about that this year.
Windows Live on Life Support
Charging for Windows Live was a big mistake, and trying to back that up with just Halo 2 and Shadowrun was an even bigger one. PC Gamers expect a lot more freedom (emphasis on “free”) when it comes to online gaming, and unless Microsoft either invests a severe amount of value in the service or reduces its price to nothing, it’ll disappear completely this year.
Survival Horror Resurgence
The last year or two have been a bit light on survival horror, but expect to see it come back with a vengeance in 2008. While I’m guessing we won’t see both Res Evil 5 and Silent Hill 5 this year, there are plenty of other games looking to scare us this year, including Condemned 2, the re-imagining of Alone in the Dark series, Project Origin (the spiritual successor to FEAR), Alan Wake, Valve’s Left 4 Dead, and multiple other entries in the genre.
RTStunning
Another genre that looks to make a big splash this year is RTS games, which one might argue are always big on PCs, but this year look to be big everywhere. Halo Wars and Civilization: Revolution will lead the way on next-gen consoles, Starcraft II will sell like crazy on the PC, and I’m even gonna’ go out on a limb and say the Wii will get a few strategy games this year too. The DS is getting Final Fantasy Tactics A2 and the PSP will undoubtedly receive a few strat-RPGs too, although it doesn’t seem as likely that either of those platforms will be blessed with traditional strategy games.
Direct-Download Games HD-ify Nostalgia
Okay, so we already know we’re getting high-def upgrades for games like Super Street Fighter II Turbo, Rez and Bionic Commando (as well as remakes of games like The Chronicles of Riddick: The Escape From Butcher Bay). I think this is only the beginning. Expect to see more of your favorite classic franchises given a next-gen facelift, particularly those from the Atari and 8-bit era, as well as perhaps a few classic PC games. As for which ones… sorry, can’t help you there.
Presidential PR
As the US presidential race heats up (and another big GTA game makes its way to stores), one of the candidates will make a comment about violence and mature content in videogames, bashing the efforts of the ESRB and demanding stricter regulations so they can look like they’re a “family-friendly” candidate. In fact, I’ll even go another step and say I can see such a comment coming from any of the Republican or Democratic contenders, although I think such a comment is probably least likely with McCain and Obama and most likely with Clinton and Huckabee, if you want odds.
Releases, Delays
Okay, in the “releases this year” category, I see Metal Gear Solid 4, Banjo-Kazooie, Halo Wars, the new Gran Turismo, Mario Kart for the Wii (as stated before), and I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Starcraft II and Spore will indeed squeak through a 2008 release.
On the “doesn’t quite make it” list, I see Final Fantasy XIII (at least not in America) and yes, Duke Nukem Forever (although I have reason to believe that we’ll see enough of it to actually have reason to believe it will see release in 2009).
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Tags: ..other
Posted by Jake McNeill on Jan 22nd, 2008 and is filed under DS Features, Features, PC Features, PS2 Features, PS3 Features, PSP Features, Wii Features, Xbox 360 Features. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can post a comment, or trackback from your own site.
